Astro Meteorology and Economics

What has the nation’s GDP growth got to do with the monsoon ? Everything !

The India Meterological Dept is considering declaring the monsoon to be a ” good monsoon “, in sharp contrast with the 2009 monsoon, which was more or less a failure.

A good monsoon means rising water levels in the reservoirs and dams. More power. It will raise farm output, control inflation ( particularly food inflation, which was 17.6% ) and spur economic growth.

60% of arable land is rain-fed. Hence monsoon showers are critical to soya bean, edible oil, sugarcane, rice etc. In India, the Monsoon is the real Finance Minister !

Because of the bad monsoon of 2009, Indian agri growth rose only .2%. On the other hand, this year’s monsoon will trigger 2.5 % agri growth and 8.5 % GDP growth. If India has sufficient infrastructure, the GDP growth will be more than 10%. A 4% agri growth forecast, many feel, will be too ambitious. Also a double digit GDP forecast !

Astro Meteorology is right again. The South West Monsoon hit Kerala on May 19th, from Karthika Njattuvela ( Sun’s transit of Eta Tauri ) onwards, slightly ahead of schedule. Sporadic rains characterised both Karthika and Rohini Njattuvelas ( Sun’s transit of Alpha Tauri ). Rains accelerated after Makiryam Njattuvela ( Sun’s transit of Lamda Orionis ). From 11th, 1130 AM onwards it has been raining incessantly. It is raining heavily now ( 13062010, 0300 PM ). There were non stop rains for 30 hours.

Tamil Nadu never used to get the South West Monsoon. But this time she got it ! There were rains in Bangalore and Surat.

As Thiruvathira Njattuvela ( Sun’s transit of Alpha Orionis ) will take over from 22nd June onwards, we expect the IMD to declare this monsoon as an ” excellent monsoon”.

Farmers use Thiruvathira Njattuvela for planting seeds, particularly beans and pepper.

Timely onset of monsoon has raised hopes of better production. The sugar output will be around 18.5 million tonnes this year.

As the Summer Season can be destructive ( more than 100 people died due to sunstroke ) monsoons can also be destructive. Fishermen are warned not to venture into the sea. The sea has attacked some 50 houses in Chavakkad Beach. Seven fishing boats were devoured by the sea. Winds at 60 km per hour are lashing Kerala. Those who are living on the low lying areas of Kerala are warned. On the positive side, rivers are overflowing, paddy fields are overflowing and wells, ponds, and lakes are full of water.

Edava Pathi & Its Two Branches

As the Sun enters the 15th degree of Taurus or Edava Pathi, the Arabian Sea Branch of the South West Monsoon first lash the Western Ghats, the rainforests of India, normally around May 29. The Western Ghats of coastal Kerala becomes the first place to receive it. This branch moves northwards along the Western Ghats, with precipitation on the coastal areas. ( coastal Kerala, coastal Karnataka and coastal Maharashtra . Bombay, on coastal Maharashtra, receives it on June 10th ). As the winds do not cross the Western Ghats, the eastern areas of the Ghats do not receive this precipitation.

At around the same time, the Bay of Bengal Branch of the S W Monsoon, picks up moisture laden particles from the Bay of Bengal and moves towards North East India, flowing over the Bay of Bengal. Immense rain mark the entry of these winds at the Eastern Himalayas. Shillong, on the southern slopes of the mighty Himalayas, is one of the most moist places in India. The winds then turn west, travelling over the Indo Gangetic plains at a rate of 7/14 days per state, showering its benign precipitation all along its way.

In the heavens, Venus, the water planet, moved to watery Cancer on 09 June. Jupiter in watery Pisces also augurs well for rains. Last year, Jupiter was in the Saturnine ( hence airy ) sign of Capricorn, which never indicated rains !