Chrysler's future looks bleak even with federal assistance, according to a leading industry analyst. As executives from America's top three automakers seek billions in aid from the federal government, the pressing question is whether this financial support will be enough to sustain them. Michael Robinet, CSM's Vice President of Global Vehicle Forecasts, believes that for Chrysler, the aid money won't be a lifeline. He predicts that the "Big Three" will inevitably become the "Detroit Two."
One of the primary reasons for this pessimistic outlook is scalability. General Motors (GM) and Ford have a more extensive global footprint compared to Chrysler. Both GM and Ford sell approximately twice as many cars overseas as they do in the domestic market. In contrast, Chrysler derives only about 10% of its business from markets outside the U.S. and Canada (source).
Robinet attributes part of Chrysler's struggles to its former parent company, Daimler AG. During its ownership, Daimler limited Chrysler's access to foreign markets, focusing more on promoting Mercedes-Benz vehicles. Although Chrysler vehicles did make it to the Americas and Europe, the emphasis was never on expanding Chrysler's global reach.
Another significant concern is Chrysler's lag in vehicle development. Few of its cars achieve a fuel economy of 30 miles per gallon (mpg) or better, a benchmark that GM and Ford have met with several models. While current fuel prices are low, they are expected to rise in the near future. When that happens, Chrysler will still lack a competitive, fuel-efficient vehicle, with the 30 mpg Dodge Caliber being its best offering.
CSM suggests that Chrysler should consider winding down its operations. Some of its products, like the Jeep Wrangler, Chrysler minivans, and the Dodge Ram, could potentially survive under different ownership. However, the long-term viability of Chrysler as a standalone entity seems unlikely.
There are discussions about reallocating Chrysler's assets to other automakers. Some propose that Jeep could be sold to GM, the minivans to Ford, and the Dodge Ram to Nissan. These ideas have been circulating in the blogosphere and among industry experts.
The outlook for Chrysler remains grim despite potential federal aid. With scalability issues, a legacy of limited global reach, and a lack of fuel-efficient vehicles, the company faces significant challenges. While some of its products may find new homes with other automakers, the long-term survival of Chrysler as an independent entity appears doubtful.
For more insights into the automotive industry's future, you can read detailed analyses from The Detroit News and Automotive News.
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