Caffeine Fix for Market Jitters

Seems like there's no end to the indigestion-inducing economic news. Recently I woke up to the news that the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index had fallen by 17.4 percent from a year earlier. Even worse, was the indication that things were acceleratingwith home prices having decreased 1.8% in September from prior months. This is the biggest drop since the Shiller index first started reporting.

Then on the way into the kitchen I heard the Commerce department announce that the gross domestic product had dropped an annual 0.5%, as the household spending was at the lowest level since 1980. I needed a shot of caffeine and some better news to lift my spirits.

I got what I needed half way through my first cup of coffeeconsumer confidence had gone up to 44.9, not including cost of food and gas. Sure, it was the second worst reading since 1974, but at least it was an improvement from October's record low of 38.8.

Then I heard that retailers from Best Buy to Nordstrom were cutting their revenue forecast and to expect a bleak Christmas season. This was not really breaking news, so I decided to sit back and enjoy another cup.

The economic news just reconfirms what we already knowthe U.S. is in a contractionary spiral. Lenders have cut bank credit, consumer spending has fallen dramatically, corporations are cutting back on capital expenditures and thousands of employees are losing their jobs.

What can one do while witnessing the ripple effects of a credit crisis that started 15 months ago except to react with contempt and frustration? Could things possibly get more out of control? Apparently so, because a few minutes later came breaking news as the Fed unveiled a new $800 billion bailout package and the U.S. has pledged up to $7.7 trillion to ease unfrozen credit.

I wanted to knock my head against the wall and scream, "Why now? If you have to do this, why do it today? Why didn't you do this12 months ago?" It boggles the mind to consider that these so-called financial experts didn't foresee the consequences of the credit crisis and the extent of the damage that would be inflicted.

Nevertheless, "Helicopter" Ben and Paulson were in complete denial a year ago. Now 15 months later they expect investors and consumers to exchange their "wait and see" positions for a "do it now" attitude and hurl headlong into reckless investment and consumption.

In my opinion, this is an all-out assault on capitalism's worst crisis since the Great Depression. The U.S. is taking the role of both lender and borrower of last resort for the global economy. The Fed Chairman as well as the Treasury Secretary are giving the store away and are no longer waiting for Obama to come to office. But in spite of their taking unprecedented actions, none of it so far has gotten any meaningful traction. Credit markets are still collapsing, stock prices are plunging, and the world economy is sinking into a recession, though some are now admitting that we're already there.

We trusted that the new plan would work as the threads of the economy are unraveling and with them, the opportunities of stemming further decline into another depression.

There has already been a substantial reduction in wages and shell-shocked investors are fleeing to super safe treasury securities, even though three-month T-bill rates dropped last week to 0.1 percent, the lowest since at least January 1940.

As we approach the holiday season everybody is scrambling. How can they unlock the contraction in consumer demand for credit and the supply of credit? The Fed seems to be making it up as they go along all in an effort to keep from sliding into a deeper recession and trying to avoid a depression.

The actions to prevent deflation, ignite economic activity and reduce the cost of availability of credit for the purchases of homes is welcome, but again . . why now? I understand their intentions. But Bernanke and Paulson were the ones that allowed Lehman to tumble. They were the ones that crafted the first $700 billion bailout package without really knowing exactly what to do with it.

Then they hastily hammered out a Citigroup rescue plan over Domino's Pizza, a plan that was so fragmented, one wonders whether it was drafted on the back of a napkin.

Citigroup bailout notwithstanding, do not expect investors to come flocking to the markets. These two so-called financial experts have done nothing to restore investor confidence and they do not have the ability to calm the markets in either the short or long term. That said, at least they are going through the motions of trying to fix a colossal mess that has already wiped the last of the U.S. investment banks off the map.

Nevertheless it is unsettling to investors and taxpayers that the cost of this latest bailout will exceed 4.6 trillion dollars! This is by far the largest outlay of capital in American history. Even if you were to go back and compare it to all the expenditures from the Marshal plan to the invasion of Iraq, the total amount would come to $3.92 trillion. Only World War II came close with a price tag of 3.36 trillion adjusted for inflation.

At the end of the day, whether you call it lending or spending, it's still U.S. tax dollars blowin' in the wind. And the American taxpayers end up holding the mystery bag of collateral. I say "mystery" because nobody has a clue what's inside; they don't know now, and they probably never will. In fact, some people are too young to even recognize that this is by far the worst financial crisis in two generations.

And to add insult to injury, the daily developing news is being shot out across the wires at such a rapid-fire pace, virtually no one has the ability to keep up with it, much less to question the sanity of what's going on.

Home prices falling, GDP dropping, weak consumer spending, the financial markets in disarray, an economic team that keeps tripping and stumbling into walls, and now we're holding our breath to find out what's to become of a failing auto industry. If we're to survive this, somebody had better come up with a workable planone that provides clear transparency, open communications and fewer surprises. Because as it turns out, people by nature do not like surprises, whether it's good news or bad.