GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW

This rally was best at its monthly gain in ever MCX history of last 10 years and which recorded best gain after 2 years when in Augusts 2011, we had seen almost 22% rally when European financial crisis and US easy money policy was seen. However against this Spot Gold rose only by $ 110 per troy Ounce or we can say a gain of only 8.50% return month on month. During the month of august alone, Indian Rupee depreciated by almost 13% which contributed a major gains in Indian gold prices. Also, continue tightening BY Indian Government to control gold imports played sentiment role to increase premium of domestic gold prices over an international market. In order to curb gold demand, Government hiked import duty on gold thrice in 2013 to 10%. Custom duty on gold dore bars, ore or concentrate increased to 8% from 6%.Indian Government took every possible step to curb gold demand.

In its latest effort, The Forward Markets Commission (FMC), which regulates the commodity futures market, hiked initial margin to 5 percent from 4 percent earlier in buy side and also imposed an additional 5 percent margin on gold, silver and crude oil futures contract from 2nd September 2013.Still future for Gold prices looks bullish as Indian Rupee is still trading in weak trajectory. Growing speculation the US was moving closer to take military action against Syria’s government may continue to boost safe haven demand for the Gold. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the timing of a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program continued after data showed that US economy grew more than expected in August.

Gold's correction from $1434 continued last week and despite a brief breach of 1367.8 supports, it quickly recovered. Further rise remains mildly in favor as rebound from 1179.4 could extend. But again, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1487.2 cluster resistance, 50% retracement of 1798.1 to 1179.4 at 1488.8, to bring reversal. Break of 1358.8 will turn outlook bearish for 272.5 support. However, there is no sign of reversal yet as long as 1526.7 resistances hold. Gold should now be in a phase of range trading between 1179.6 and 1526.7 in medium term.

Gold MCX October closed at Rs. 33015.During the month of August, due to currency, there was excessive volatility in the market. Gold MCX October opened at Rs. 28300 on 1/8/2013. It made a high of Rs. 35074 on 28/8/2013, with a remarkable lead of Rs. 6800, which is believed to have happened first time. On 26/8/2013, it made a low of Rs. 24830. Gold is trading Rs 2000 below the high it recorded in the month of August. Gold MCX is still trading at its all time high. If we talk about its performance for last two months, Gold MCX has jumped nearly Rs. 10200 from its low. This was a never seen before kind of stuff.