2012 China Auto Market Forecast: Independent Brands Face Tougher Challenges

May 30
07:11

2024

jodie mht

jodie mht

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The Chinese auto market in 2012 is poised for significant changes, with independent brands likely to face increased difficulties. This article delves into the market trends, sales forecasts, and the challenges that lie ahead for various players in the industry. We will explore the potential for market growth, the resurgence of Japanese brands, the struggles of independent brands, and the wave of mergers and acquisitions among dealers.

Summary

The Chinese auto market in 2012 is set for a dynamic year,2012 China Auto Market Forecast: Independent Brands Face Tougher Challenges Articles with independent brands facing heightened challenges. This article explores market trends, sales forecasts, and the hurdles ahead for various industry players. We examine potential market growth, the resurgence of Japanese brands, the struggles of independent brands, and the wave of mergers and acquisitions among dealers. With detailed statistics and insights, we provide a comprehensive overview of the evolving landscape of China's auto industry.

Market Overview

Sales Projections: Aiming for 20 Million Units

In 2011, China's auto market saw a modest 3% year-on-year increase in sales, leaving many industry insiders disappointed. The beginning of 2012 also appeared lackluster, with January passenger car sales dropping by 14.9% year-on-year to 982,008 units, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). However, this decline can be partly attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival.

Despite the slow start, there are reasons for optimism. Hyundai Motor Group, for instance, reported strong sales in January 2012, with Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Yueda Kia selling a combined 97,994 vehicles. General Motors (GM) and its joint ventures also achieved impressive results, selling 246,654 vehicles in January, an 8% year-on-year decrease but a 25.3% increase from December 2011.

If this trend continues, the Chinese auto market could see a growth rate of over 10% in 2012, potentially surpassing 20 million units in sales.

Japanese Brands: A Strong Comeback

Japanese automakers faced significant challenges in 2011 due to the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami. However, they have shown resilience and are poised for a strong comeback in 2012. Dongfeng Nissan, for example, achieved impressive sales figures in 2011, reaching 808,588 units, a 22.3% increase from the previous year.

This resurgence is not limited to Nissan. Other Japanese brands are also expected to bounce back, leveraging their strong market presence and brand loyalty. The recovery of Japanese automakers is likely to intensify competition in the Chinese market.

Independent Brands: Struggling to Survive

Independent Chinese auto brands faced a tough year in 2011, with many struggling to meet their sales targets. According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), independent brands sold 4,810,196 passenger cars in 2011, a decrease of 208,682 units from the previous year. In contrast, joint venture brands saw a 10.6% increase in sales, reaching 9,662,701 units.

The market share of independent brands in the passenger car segment dropped to 30.7%. Without considering exports, their domestic market share fell below 30%, far short of the industry's target of 40%. In 2010, only five independent brands experienced negative growth, but this number increased to 14 in 2011, representing over 50% of all independent brands.

The challenges for independent brands are expected to continue in 2012, with many joint ventures launching their own independent brand vehicles. For instance, Dongfeng Nissan has established the Venucia brand, and its first model, the D50, is set to hit the market. Similarly, Guangqi Honda's Everus S1 and SGMW's Baojun 630 have shown promising sales figures.

Mergers and Acquisitions: A Growing Trend

The Chinese auto industry has seen a trend towards consolidation in recent years. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA), there are over 6,000 registered dealers, with 75% being small businesses. In 2010, the top 100 dealers accounted for 21% of total car sales.

In January 2012, the Ministry of Commerce issued guidelines to promote the development of the circulation industry, aiming to improve the car distribution network. The plan envisions the emergence of dealer groups with annual revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan. By the end of the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the concentration of the car circulation industry is expected to increase, with the top enterprises accounting for over 30% of total retail turnover.

Several large dealer groups have already taken steps towards consolidation. In March 2010, Dalian Wanda Group raised $367 million through an initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong. In July 2010, state-owned enterprise QiMao also successfully listed on the capital market. In April 2011, Yongda Auto Group launched its IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, becoming the largest listed company in the global distribution industry.

Conclusion

The Chinese auto market in 2012 is set for a dynamic year, with significant challenges and opportunities for various players. While the market is expected to grow, independent brands will face increased difficulties, and Japanese brands are poised for a strong comeback. The trend towards mergers and acquisitions among dealers is likely to continue, leading to greater industry consolidation.

As the market evolves, it will be crucial for industry players to adapt to changing conditions and leverage their strengths to succeed in this competitive landscape.

References

  1. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM)
  2. China Passenger Car Association (CPCA)
  3. China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA)

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese auto market in 2012, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities. With detailed statistics and insights, it offers valuable information for industry stakeholders and enthusiasts.