5 Potential Outcomes from the Extra 3 Billion People on Earth in 2050

Summary

The United Nations projects that the global population will surge to 9.3 billion by 2050, a significant increase from today's numbers. This rapid growth necessitates urgent action in resource conservation, alternative energy development, and population control measures. The implications of this population boom are vast and multifaceted, affecting everything from global warming to geopolitical stability.

Introduction

The United Nations' recent study estimates that the global population will reach 9.3 billion by 2050, a 50% increase from the current population. This growth, coupled with the economic development of third-world countries, will double the demand for resources. Population growth, often overshadowed by issues like global warming and resource depletion, must now be considered a key driver of these worsening problems. Here are five potential outcomes of this population surge.

1. Resource Conflicts: Oil and Water Wars

Oil Wars

The United States' actions in Iraq and Afghanistan can be seen as early examples of "oil wars." As global demand for oil increases, conflicts over this finite resource are likely to escalate. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand is expected to reach 104.1 million barrels per day by 2026, up from 96.5 million barrels per day in 2021 (IEA).

Water Wars

Changing weather patterns and increased demand could lead to "water wars." The World Resources Institute warns that 17 countries, home to one-quarter of the world's population, face "extremely high" water stress (WRI).

2. Global Warming

Meeting the increased power demands of a growing population is costly. Fossil fuel alternatives, while necessary, are advancing slowly due to their higher costs compared to fossil fuels. Government incentives are crucial but are often limited by budget deficits and political hurdles. Meanwhile, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. According to the Global Carbon Project, CO2 emissions reached 36.4 billion tonnes in 2021, a 4.9% increase from 2020 (Global Carbon Project).

3. Peak Oil

If peak oil theories are correct, we are on the downslope of the oil production bell curve. Diminishing supply amid rising demand will push prices higher. Even if peak oil is a myth, the static supply will still struggle to meet increasing demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that global oil production will plateau around 2030 (EIA).

4. Increased Foreign Competition for Resources

Of the 3 billion people expected to be added to the global population, only 100 million will be in the U.S. The remaining 2.9 billion will compete for resources, essential for their survival. This competition will be particularly fierce in developing countries, where resource scarcity is already a critical issue. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global food demand is expected to increase by 70% by 2050 (FAO).

5. Delayed Solutions

Jared Diamond, in his Pulitzer Prize-winning book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed," explains that societies often collapse because leaders focus on short-term issues, ignoring long-term problems. This short-term thinking sets the stage for rapid decline. Despite clear warnings, societies often fail to take the necessary bold, anticipatory actions. The hope is that we can learn from history and take proactive steps to avoid a similar fate.

Conclusion

The projected population growth to 9.3 billion by 2050 presents significant challenges and potential crises. From resource conflicts to global warming, the implications are far-reaching. However, with proactive measures and long-term planning, it is possible to mitigate these risks and ensure a sustainable future.

References

• International Energy Agency
• World Resources Institute
• Global Carbon Project
• U.S. Energy Information Administration
• Food and Agriculture Organization