The big announcement on October 12 came from the NABE (National Association of Business Economists): "The Recession is over.
Economic recovery or an interlude?
By Bert Dohmen, founder, Bert Dohmen's WELLINGTON LETTER
The big announcement on October 12 came from the NABE (National Association of Business Economists): "The Recession is over." Cover stories in national magazines confirmed that view.
On the surface, that sounds great. But then you think, what does it mean? Unemployment is expected to rise above 10%, mortgage defaults are rising sharply and now spreading to high-priced homes, credit card defaults are soaring and expected to go above 10%, commercial real estate loans are in big trouble (about $750 billion). So, how do they define the "end of recession?"
Is it two consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth? Is the "growth" a comparison with year-ago levels, or the last quarter? You see, you can have the so-called "end of recession" without any meaningful effects for the average person. And don't forget, this proclamation came from a large group of economists, the same people who were so optimistic in 2007, just before the financial and economic crisis started accelerating.
My rule is "don't believe economists." It's a fact, that just before a major debacle in the financial system and the economy, leading economists have been most optimistic. Remember that in 1929, just before the crash, the leading economist of the day said that the "economy is on permanently high plateau." The same thing happened in early 2000, just before the internet and high tech crash. And we saw it again in 2007, when only a few economists warned of bad things to come. (I am not an economist, and therefore was able to predict the worst financial disaster since the 1930's in my book, PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN, written in late 2007.)
On January 10, 2008, when the country was already in recession as we know now, the Fed Chairman said, “Thus, notwithstanding the effects of multi-billion dollar write-downs on the earnings and share prices of some large institutions, the banking system remains sound … The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
Three months later, he testified before Congress. As we know now, this was four months after the recession had started. He said: “Recession is possible, but recession is a technical term … I’m not ready to say whether or not the US economy will face such a situation.”
Yes, and these are the people allegedly "steering the economy." Heaven help us. It's like the little bird sitting on top of the rhinoceros going through the jungle, thinking he is steering the rhino.
Currently, the consensus view of economists, Wall Street analysts, and even Nobel Prize recipients in economics is that the economy is recovering and that it is the time to go bargain hunting for the good times ahead. The Economist writes: “After the storm: How to make the best of the recovery.”
Well, the world's most devastating financial crisis in almost a century isn't over in two years, especially with the current disastrous policies coming out Washington. Even enlightened political leadership would have its work cut out for them. But when the leadership wants to replace capitalism with socialism, there will be a lot of broken eggs,
The default rate on Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) is skyrocketing. The Fed still has hundreds of billions of dollars to buy up some of this paper in order to avert another crisis. As you can see, the government is now the whole ball game. They are spending money created out of thin air. That is not the way to resolve a problem produced by an imploding credit bubble. A better way it to let the defaults occur and let the marketplace take care of the shakeout.
Unemployment now officially stands at 9.8%. The “Employment Report” for September was dismal. Officially, the payroll survey showed a decline in payrolls of 263,000. However, the household survey shows 785,000 people losing jobs.
Because of an accounting gimmick, the unemployment rate rose only 0.1% in September. You see, the civilian labor force shrunk by 571,000 in September, compared to an increase in the labor force of 73,000 in August. If the labor force had held steady in September, the unemployment rate would have increased to 10.2%!
The actual unemployment rate as measured years ago is between 17% and 20%. You don't hear that in the financial media!
The New York Times, on September 27, 2009 published: “U.S. Job Seekers Exceed Openings by Record Ratio — 6 Jobless for Each Spot. The September Labor Department statistics revealed that “unemployment among 16-24 year olds hit a record 52 percent." Wow!
Therefore, I think it's too early to bet on an economic recovery. The average period of stagnation after a huge credit bubble has burst is 17 years. I measure the top from the year 2000, which is confirmed by numerous economic measures. In Japan, the period of stagnation has now lasted 19 years. My forecast in 2007 was that the earliest year for a sustainable recovery in the U.S. would be 2017. But given the current direction of Washington, it may last a lot longer. Plan on it.
