Trading Talk – Champions League Final Preview

With both Manchester United and Barcelona clinching their domestic titles with a week to spare, all eyes can now focus on the Champions League final in Rome. Both managers have the luxury of being able to rest their team in preparation for the final on May 27th and as the Stadio Olimpico prepares to host what is set to be a classic, there is plenty for spread bettors to get excited about. Barca are eyeing a third European title whilst United aim for their fourth and their second in as many years. Ryan Giggs has described the game as ‘50-50’ but the Sporting Index traders make the Catalan giants slight favourites on the outright index spread at 87-88.5pts (100pts for winner, 75pts for runner-up), whilst United are at 86.5-88pts. Maybe significantly for spread bettors, Barca has been drawn as the home team so United will wear their all-white strip.  Buyers of United’s spread may remember it is exactly 18 years since they beat Barcelona 2-1 in the European Cup-Winners’ Cup – wearing identical outfits.

Spread bettors looking to get involved in the total goals market should be aware that in the last nine finals there have been 25 goals, averaging almost three goals a game. Since 2000 there has only been one occasion where the final has been scoreless, in 2003 when AC Milan drew 0-0 with Juventus. Supremacy spread buyers and sellers will note that four of the nine previous finals have been settled by penalties and furthermore the last two finals in Rome have ended 1-1, both being decided 4-2 on penalties. This may open up opportunities for a worthwhile in-play spread bet, especially if one team edges ahead in an otherwise tight game.

United and Barca have played each other six times since 1994, each recording one win and drawing the other four. Buyers of the total goals spread will be pleased that these meetings have averaged 3.5 goals per game, although this is probably tempered by knowledge of United’s defensive record – they’ve conceded just six goals in Europe this year. Barca have conceded 13 goals this campaign and buyers of their match win index spread will be concerned with the lack of defensive options Guardiola has for the final.

Sellers of the total bookings spread will be encouraged that United have only picked up six yellow cards in the knockout stages while buyers of Barcelona’s booking supremacy will be pleased that Barca have received 12 yellows in the same period plus a controversial red for Abidal against Chelsea. Another popular market is Sporting Index’s total goal minutes spread. Those buying total goal minutes for the final might like to know that the last four finals have accumulated 71, 216, 194 and a staggering 254, when Liverpool came back from the dead to triumph over AC Milan in 2005. The last three finals have produced eight goals and notably, half of those have been scored in the final quarter of the game.