Trading Talk –Derby and Oaks

The Derby and The Oaks, two of the most famous races in the world, will have spread bettors salivating come early June and there promises to be some epic action on the Epsom Downs. Starting with the Derby and last year’s renewal saw New Approach give Jim Bolger his first ever Derby winner and Ireland’s first since 2002. Racing spread betting fans will be well aware that the Irish hold an extremely strong hand this year and it would be a major surprise to see an English-trained colt finish on top of Sporting Index’s win index. Three of the last five favourites have won the world’s most famous classic and spread buyers of SP’s won’t be pleased to hear that Sinndar in 2000 was the biggest priced winner in the last decade at 7/1. However, in 1998, High-Rise took the prize at an attractive 20/1 and I’m sure the spread buyers would love an equivalent of Mon Mome’s Grand National win.

All those who like to have a spread bet on racing know that you need a certain type of horse to win at Epsom. Some handle the unique contours of the track, whilst others slide down the famous camber like they’re racing on an ice rink. It may surprise a few spread bettors that the biggest ever winning distance of the Epsom Derby is just 10 lengths. That was by the incredible Shergar in 1981, ridden by 18-year-old choir boy, Walter Swinburn. However, that isn’t to say that spread sellers of winning distances always have it their own way. In two of the last four runnings the winning margin has been by an impressive 5 lengths (Authorized and Motivator), although five of the last ten have been won by a length or less.

The fillies’ classic is run 24 hours earlier and the spread bettor’s Oaks friend, Henry Cecil, will be going for an unprecedented ninth win in the race, with his filly Midday. In stark comparison to the colts, the leading lights in the Sporting Index win index for this race are  all likely to be English-trained and Ireland have only won two of the last 10 races. Prior to 2007, the Oaks was the perfect race for those selling SP’s on the spreads. In the eight years from Ramruma’s 1999 win for Cecil, five jollies obliged and only one winner went off bigger than 7/2. However, things have changed a little recently and Look Here’s win at 33/1 last year, as well as Light Shift’s victory in 2007 at 13/2, have given spread buyers a few more reasons to celebrate.

There have obviously been some close Oaks finishes over the years, but only three of the last 10 runnings have seen a winning margin under 1 ¼ lengths. Horse Racing Spread bettors playing the winning distance market will be interested to learn that in the last five years three of the winning margins have been 3 & 3/4, 6 and 7 lengths. However, they have all come in alternative years, so if the pattern is to continue, 2009 could be one of the tighter finishes.