The gluten-free market in the United States is experiencing unprecedented growth, with online searches for gluten-free products skyrocketing by nearly 50% year over year. Meanwhile, searches for "celiac" have remained relatively stable since 2009. This article delves into the annual growth rates and seasonal trends of these search terms, revealing distinct patterns and reasons behind the searches. Discover why these trends matter and what they indicate about consumer behavior and market maturity.
The gluten-free market in the US is booming, with online searches for gluten-free products growing at an astonishing rate. According to a study by Gluten Free Pages, the annual growth rate for gluten-free searches has been near 50% year over year. In contrast, searches for "celiac" have remained relatively stagnant since 2009. This suggests that two distinct groups of people are searching for these terms for very different reasons.
Gluten Free Pages conducted original research on the demand for the top 50 search terms associated with gluten-free products in the US, Australia, Canada, and the UK. The analysis revealed that these countries not only have the highest number of "celiac searches per month" but also share a similar profile of the types of terms searched. The leading keyword terms were segmented into seven core groups, with the largest group always being the generic gluten-free product group, followed by the celiac group.
| Keyword | US | Australia | Canada | UK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gluten Free | 1,830,000 | 135,000 | 165,000 | 201,000 |
| Celiac/Coeliac | 673,000 | 33,100 | 74,000 | 74,000 |
Previous research into search trends for the term "gluten-free" across these countries showed that the US and Canada had very high sustained growth rates (near 40% per annum) over the last five years. Australia followed with about 10% growth, while the UK showed near-zero growth. The four-year growth demand trends for the celiac term in each country were substantially lower than their trends for gluten-free.
The data shows that while the USA's gluten-free seasonal demand trend is very high (up to 50% per year), it also follows a consistent pattern each year. In contrast, the celiac growth trend is very flat, with only two notable peaks (March 2007 and October 2006). The seasonal growth trend for celiac searches is also similar each year.
While the celiac growth rate is much lower than the gluten-free online demand growth rate for any given country, the relative growth for the US between the gluten-free rates "year on year" is much more positive than its celiac equivalents. For example, in the US, gluten-free searches in 2004 had an absolute average growth rate of 101%, which increased to 122% in 2005. This gives it a relative growth rate gain of 21% in 2005. In contrast, celiac searches showed no significant growth during the same period.
In Australia, while gluten-free searches had strong positive growth each year, the rate of growth decreased between 2005 and 2007. For instance, between 2005 and 2006, gluten-free searches decreased from +18% to +11% (a 38% decrease), while celiac searches decreased from -4% to -5% (a 25% decrease).
The seasonal trends for gluten-free searches in Australia are similar to those in the US, with a consistent positive growth pattern each year. In contrast, the demand trend for seasonal celiac searches is more volatile month to month, though it follows a similar pattern each year.
The gluten-free seasonal graphs (January to December) show a strong growth bias towards the end of the year for each country. This is due to the strong positive growth rate and the northern hemisphere spikes of winter and Christmas searching/spending occurring simultaneously. The celiac seasonal growth trend profile is very different from the gluten-free trend shape. However, all countries within the celiac trends show a remarkably similar profile to each other, with positive spikes occurring in March, May, and October.
Original research on the top fifty keywords showed that the two leading keyword groups for leading celiac search countries were gluten-free and celiac groups. It was thought that the more gluten-free aware countries tended to have a much higher proportion of searches for gluten-free than celiac as the markets were closer to maturity. People search for celiac information in the early stages of their diagnosis and continue to search for gluten-free products throughout their lives.
Weak, underdeveloped markets such as Brazil and India tend to have a much similar total volume of searches for each of the two groups. In underdeveloped (underdiagnosed) markets, a higher proportion of people have just been diagnosed and are looking up the effects of celiac disease before they go on to search for gluten-free products.
Unlike other products, a celiac will search for gluten-free products for life unless a cure is found. The low diagnosis rate of celiac disease, even in mature markets, suggests that the markets are far from maturity. The growth profiles (absolute growth rates and yearly seasonal trends) show no correlation between each other, indicating that the demand trends are for two distinct sets of people. Gluten-free searches are most likely attributed to celiac consumers looking to find gluten-free food to eat. In contrast, celiac searches may partly be due to celiac consumers, but the vast majority is likely attributed to medical professionals and allied professionals interested in understanding the disease for professional reasons.
By understanding these trends and the reasons behind them, businesses and healthcare professionals can better cater to the needs of their target audiences, ensuring that both celiac patients and gluten-free consumers receive the information and products they need.
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