How to evaluate launch potential

It happened we planned in some company product test standards that could then match with the effective sales.

Among market tests goals there's the launch potential evaluation. I would like to briefly discuss about this sort of test effectiveness and above all, which kind of expectations to have.

Note that even important volumetric tests (by name and investment) produce appraisals that often disappoint for approximation (the boasted on average 20% in many cases marks the border between success and failure with the margin of error already included), it's for sure important for a company, above all in case of continuous launches, to have a prompt feedback on what thinking about production evaluations, reorders and restocks.

It was difficult above all to single out, for first, the variables that used to influence the real purchase, already inside tests: the perception of being unique, the coherence with brand, the enthusiasm level produced (valuable with verbalizations), till the most obvious sale declared intention.

We should add to this "laboratory" situation: supporting investments, distribution and an evaluation on the existing competitors.

Further variables to consider merely on test level are:

- the time to market: be careful to test ideas "out of season", or when trends remarkably influence them in order to launch them far from those conditions.

- the framework: an idea or a concept often reflect the framework during the evaluation, that's why poor hypothesis, tested together with other "rubbish", are evaluated better than the same concepts tested with a "gold standard". That's why it's useful to introduce benchmarks.

- the test length and variety: how much does it take before a person interviewed start to comment less and to give all answers within the medium values?

- the sample to interview: as wide as possible, in order to include all the generable potential, but with an adequate brand supporters and representatives.

And finally the pattern must be tested and calibrated again and again. But it's worth it for sure. That's a shame that the "copy and paste" model, applicable to everything, doesn't exist.
If then we add time and costs restrictions, and the need to find creative techniques with affordable price... it's clear why this kind of settings is a big proof for every company and why huge budgets are often invested.