This article provides an up-to-date vision of a typical fantasy football draft with feedback on where players are being picked.
The NFL football pre-season is coming to a close but the majority of fantasy football drafts are in the last week. If you are like me, you prefer to wait until that week so you have a clear understanding of who the starters will be and not own valuable players who are now injured. I have been keeping a Fantasy Football Mock Draft list all summer long and have made numerous adjustments to it. I have also watched many drafts and have build an "average" draft from those results for standard scoring leagues. This allows me to compare the two and helps me understand if I need to pick a player earlier than expected if I really want them or if I can wait a little while longer on a player. I will share these insights with you now.
Round 1
NOTES: After AP. Every mock draft has a different order for the remaining picks in round one. I believe that Doug Martin is the safest choice out of this group followed by Morris and Rice. Arian Foster is a best but knee and foot injuries with your number 1 pick can be a real killer. Steven Ridley is a questionable number 1 since he has no real track record and Shane Vereen could easily slide into a co-number 1 back role.
Round 2
NOTES: I don’t like Rodgers this high. Too many injuries at WR and a bad OL have me concerned with his production this year. IF I want to go QB early, Brees is easily my first choice off the board. If I don’t get Brees, I look down a round or two for Matt Ryan. All RBs in this round with a shortened nickname give me pause; Sjax, T-Rich, CJ2K and MoJo are better left for other owners if you ask me. I’d pull a top WR before one of these 4, even Larry Fitzgerald since I am all in on his connection with Palmer this year.
Round 3
NOTES: You can’t go wrong with any WR in this round or Jimmy Graham. Barring injury, Graham will double-up all other TEs this year. I personally grab Matt Ryan over Tm Brady this year due to age, health and far, far, far better receivers.
Round 4
NOTES: If you have 2 solid RBs, a top WR/ Jimmy Graham and have a shot at Manning here, take it! You can fill out other WRs as you go on. Adding more confidence, better health and Wes Welker will only make his numbers better this year. There are a lot of question marks in this round that I would leave up to other owners, namely, Wayne, Murray, Mathews and Bush (only if not in a PPR league). David Wilson is a high risk, high reward in this round. Do yourself a favor a few rounds later and grab Andre Brown if you are the person drafting David Wilson.
Round 5
NOTES: In my eyes, there are two sets of receivers here, the must drafts and the definitely skip. I don’t trust Greg Jennings and Wes Welker this high. Manning loved throwing to Decker last year and I don’t see a fall-off there, but I do with Welker. I love Boldin as a player and think he will be a beast in San Fran this year so he is my first pick out of this group.
Round 6
NOTES: Giovani Bernard has moved up every week since the rankings came out and with good reason. He is the Real Deal and will own the number 1 RB slot on a very good Bengals offense this year. I take him over anyone else in this round. Too many TEs in this round for me, though I would draft Tony G since he is still a health freak and will repeat last year’s monster numbers. I can’t trust Gronk, but think Mendenhall is a great choice here.
Round 7
NOTES: Round 7 is a money round. If you overloaded in a position earlier, you can easily fill a hole here. Not enough RBs? Williams and Richardson are bruising starters. Not enough WRs? Jackson, Garcon and Shorts have potential for monster seasons. Need a TE? Eifert and Witten will make you smile. I think this is too early for Luck. Bradshaw is a roll of the dice that could pay off if you want a bench RB and potential trade bait if he plays well. If you get Bradshaw, grab Vick Ballard a few rounds later as well.
Round 8
NOTES: The next tier of QBs gets their run here for those teams that did not grab a stud QB earlier. I have no issue with any QB here, but I would recommend going after another QB in round 9 or 10 if you roll the dice on Vick or RGIII as your starting QB. Ben Tate is a must-grab backups here before someone else snatches him up and backs into a top RB due to an injury. I have no idea why anyone would draft Jacoby Jones…in any round....and you can skip Andre Brown now that he is hurt. Jacoby Jones has made a career out of one catch and his return game, but he has made a career aside from that as a disappointing starting WR. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tandon Doss own the #2 WR slot in Baltimore. Take any other WR in this round.
Round 9
NOTES: We are now into mixed bag rounds; mid-level TEs, a nice backup QB and straight-up fliers. If you have Steven Ridley, you HAVE to grab Shane Vereen. Vereen could easily supplant Ridley as the #1 back. Josh Gordon has dropped too far due to his suspension, but he is a steal in this round and can easily sit on your bench for a few weeks. Kenbrell Thompkins is worth a pick if you are already set at WR. He has rapidly risen up the ranks as he appears to be the Patriots’ downfield threat. Houston has not lined up a single talented receiver across from Andre Johnson since he was been in the league…until now…grab DeAndre Hopkins with confidence.
Round 10
NOTES: More of the same with backup QBs and running backs. A few intriguing picks are Michael Floyd and Pierre Thomas. I truly believe in Arizona’s passing game this year and Floyd will benefit immensely from teams overloading on Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer being able to throw the ball downfield. New Orleans needs a power back to offset Darren Sproles. They seem to think that Mark Ingram is not the answer and lost Chris Ivory, so Thomas is that back from default. Worthy of a pick here is you are not deep enough at RB.
Round 11
NOTES: More of the same with backup QBs and running backs. A few intriguing picks are Brandon Myers and Bilal Powell. Myers is a #1 TE and is a steal in this round if you have been waiting until now for a TE. He was not a big end-zone target in Oakland, but Eli utilizes his tight ends much better in the Red Zone. The Jets are B-A-D, Bad, Bad, Bad, but they do need a RB to carry the load. Chris Ivory will be that man, but he gets hurt every year. Powell looked very good at times last year and could find himself with 10-15 carries a gain when Ivory is healthy and 20+ when Ivory gets hurt. Also, Andre Brown is now getting no love due to dis broken leg. You can grab him here and then stash him on your IR, if your league allows it, when he is designated as Out and pick up a top remaining free agent, such as Danny Woodhead.
Round 12
NOTES: There are some nice receivers that are well worth a roster spot in this round. If Alshon Jeffery can stay healthy, he will have a big year in Chicago.The passing game needs another receiver and he is a tall, though fragile, target. No one has taken a Jets receiver yet, with good reason, but Hill could be their #1, for what that’s worth. T.Y. Hilton was a favorite of Andrew Luck in the second half of 2012. I don’t buy into Heyward-Bey knocking him down the depth chart.
Round 13
NOTES: By now, there is no way to predict what will happen to these players. Slow owners will remember that it is best to back up their stud RBs and a few people will jump on the remaining top defenses before the inevitable rush in week 14.
Round 14
NOTES: The second to last round of the draft. This is where Defenses should be drafted since there is not a lot that separates them in most normal scoring systems. This could vary greatly if your league also awards points for low yardage and points allowed. By now, a few over-zealous owners have grabbed Houston, Denver, Seattle and San Fran. Do not panic and follow them down this path. Wait until this round and grab Cincy, if possible. I love their defense this year. I also expect solid defenses in Arizona, St. Louis, New England and Tampa. Don’t buy into Baltimore, Green Bay, Philly as those solid defenses are in the past.
Round 15
NOTES: The last round of the draft. This is where Kickers should be drafted since there is not a lot that separates them and no one can predict how many opportunities each will get. My usual strategy is to draft one with a Bye in weeks 10-12 so I don’t have to worry about that position for over half the season.
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