How to pick your own horse race winners

Do you have one of those friends who always seems to do well betting on the horses, but keeps tight-lipped about how they manage to do so well? Do they have access to a top tipster and pay premium prices for hot tips, or do they follow a tried and trusted system that seems to have a good strike-rate?

As we know, there is no guaranteed system that turns out a winner every time, and even the best tipsters get it wrong sometimes, so why not have a go at picking your own winner – and it will only cost you the price of buying a newspaper, or if you are online, nothing at all.

In the UK there is a newspaper called The Racing Post, and this is where you can get all the information you will need to select your possible winner for the day. Alternatively, visit the online website racingpost.com.

• What sort of race would my ideal horse be running in?

Well, let’s not dwell on the ultra-competitive Group One races where all the horses are the equivalent of superheroes in the racing world. These horses regularly win big prize money by the thousands, and it’s extremely hard to pick a winner from this grade of race.

After Group One we scale down through Group 2, Group 3, 4, 5 and finally Group 6 whose prize money wouldn’t buy a packet of Smarties. There are also different types of races within these bands such as claiming races, seller races, maidens, handicap races, and novice hurdles.

I wouldn’t even consider looking for a winner in a maiden race. Maidens are normally two-year-old horses who are new to racing, so have no experience or track record to be judged by. So anyone betting in these races would be betting on the horses potential and breeding only. A little too risky.

The same could be said for novice hurdles races where the horses taking part have never raced over hurdles before, so again you are judging on potential and not a proven track record.

Selling races are where horses are being sold by their current owners for whatever reason, so are usually of poor quality, and consistency wouldn’t be guaranteed.

Narrowing your selections to races between Group 2 and Group 5 and horses with experience would be advisable.

• Take a look at the horses form.

My perfect horse should have won or been consistently placed in the first 4 in it’s most recent few runs.  Also check the number of runners in these races if you can, as it’s good to have come 4th in a race with 16 or so runners, but not so good if it was the 4th of only four runners.

• How many runners are in the race?

If a potential horse is running in a race with very few runners, then all the better, as there will be less horses to beat! Ideally you should be looking for a race with no more than 12 or 13 horses running.

• What is the optimum racing distance?

The shortest races current being run is over 5 furlongs, and the longest are over 3 miles, and just the thought of a horse travelling 3 miles over plenty of hurdles to trip them up makes me shudder in my boots, so I would discount these races. 

A 5-furlong sprint race is also a little risky to look at for a sure thing. What if your selection is slow getting out of the stalls, there will not be enough time to make up any ground. What if the horse gets boxed in? There’s not really enough time to manoeuvre around horses before the finish line is upon them.

So ideally choose a race that is no more than 3 miles long, but at least 7 furlongs in distance to give your horse a sporting chance.

• Is the jockey as important as the horse?

It’s all very well having a top rated horse, but you also need a good jockey to steer your selection to victory. You have your professional jockeys, apprentice jockeys, amateur jockeys, lady riders, and conditional jockeys, so my choice would have to be a professional jockey with a good track record.

• For a better chance of winning, pick a fit horse!

If one of your potential horses had not run a race in over 100 days, you would have to question why. Possible injury perhaps? Would you risk your hard-earned cash on a horse that may not be race fit, or having it’s first run since an injury? Thought not. Ideally you should look for a horse that has had a run within the last 30 days and therefore race fit.

• What are the ground conditions like?

Each race course will state its ‘going’ for the day depending on what weather conditions the course has experienced recently. If the course has seen lots of rain, then the going may be classed as ‘heavy’ meaning very soft underfoot and the horses would sink into the turf further than it would if conditions were dryer, and therefore very energy-draining for the horses. I wouldn’t pick a race where the ground is heavy. The ideal conditions would be where the ground is good, or good to firm.

• Check with the experts.

What do the experts at The Racing Post think of your selection? Check the betting forecast for the race and see if the forecaster has put it in as favourite. Read what Spotlight has to say about your horse, hopefully he has given a favourable write up about the horse’s chances of winning.

Look at the Naps Challenge table to see which horses the national newspapers are napping. Your horse should be the one with the most naps.

Check the horses ratings on the racing post website by clicking on the Topspeed, Postdata and RP ratings buttons. Hopefully you will see your horse at the top of all these sections.

Once you have gone through this system for selecting a potential winner a few times, it will become second nature to you as you scan through the paper or the stats on the website.

You may not get a selection every day, and some days you may get more than one, but it’s up to you whether you want to narrow down your selections to just one, or take a gamble on all of them.

• Bet to win or lose?

You can also take this system and turn it on its head to select horses to lay on a betting exchange.  If a horse fits none of the above criteria, then you have a potential loser to lay.

Picking a horse to lay in a race is like backing a horse to lose the race instead of winning it. So you can see that in a field of say 10 runners where you pick one horse to lose, you have effectively backed the other 9 horses to win – a much better chance of getting a return on your bet than trying to pick one winner out of 10 runners. But you have to be careful when selecting your lay bet. Don’t go for the obvious 33-1 outsider who you think has absolutely no chance of winning just because it’s at the bottom of the betting. These rank outsiders win more often than you think, and the results could prove to be a disaster for your betting bank.

• Choosing a betting service or tipster.

If you work full-time, or are unable to spare the time to sort out your own racing selections, then choosing a betting service or tipster may be the way to go. There are numerous betting systems and tipsters on the market, so before jumping in and going with the first one that takes your fancy, make sure you check out their past results which should be easily accessible on their website, or openly presented with their introductory information.

As I have said before, no racing system or tipster has a 100% strike-rate, so I would be suspicious of any service or tipster who cannot present a full set of past results, including losing bets.

Most good racing tipsters and services usually have a 30 day, or longer, money back guarantee if you are not happy with their service, and I would certainly look for these guarantees before signing up.