Just over a month ago, I wrote in this column about the attractiveness of considering some exposure to Chinese stocks as part of a balanced equity por...
Just over a month ago,
I wrote in this column about the attractiveness of considering some exposure to Chinese stocks as part of a balanced equity portfolio. I wrote that this was practically achievable by considering a basket of stocks like the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE/FXI), which represents the 25 largest companies in China that are available to international investors.
Well, this iShares basket is up around four points since then and it isn't just because the broader stock market has been strong over the last few weeks. Chinese stock markets have already experienced a bubble and a correction. That correction was just about over when the global credit crisis hit. Now, Chinese equity indices are trading in a range, waiting eagerly for a catalyst to jump higher.
Domestic Chinese stocks have great potential for capital appreciation over the coming quarters and any good news from the U.S. economy will send those stocks higher. Chinese stocks will be leading the global equity markets over the near term.
There is a more positive tone developing in U.S. capital markets and it is supported by some positive economic data. Recent news on the banking sector, applications for mortgages, housing starts, and durable goods has collectively been responsible for improving sentiment among investors. The big question is: will it last?
Just like in the stock market, the economy can experience a dead cat bounce. Economic activity contracted very quickly last year and the current positive news might just be a reaction to extremely reduced interest rates. Those businesses and individuals with some cash in the bank have been doing some shopping, because the cost of money is extremely low and there have been some real bargains in the marketplace. My worry is that this latest "uptick" in economic activity and the stock market won't be able to sustain the slight momentum that's happening now.
Clearly, we need continued cheerleading from policymakers, as well as more tools to get and keep credit flowing in the economy.
Over the last several months, I've written in this column about the kinds of investments I would include in a model equity portfolio. Some exposure to gold, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and Chinese stocks is a necessity. A big bank with a solid track record of dividend payments is also attractive now. I would always include some special situation opportunities, but I'm less enthusiastic about small-cap companies. Further to this, I favor holding dividend paying stocks, because I just don't expect a lot of tailwind from the broader stock market. I could be wrong about this, but I just can't envision a huge new bull market developing anytime soon. As long as the dividend is there, inflation won't get the best of your portfolio.
Most gold companies don't pay a lot in the way of dividends, but pharmaceuticals and some agricultural-related companies do. China iShares also pay dividends. The basket of stocks I wrote about last month is currently yielding around three percent.
My thinking about these investment themes in a model equity portfolio is all about a back-to-basics investment strategy that I think best represents the economic outlook before us. People's spending habits are returning to the basics and so should your investment strategy.
Profit Confidential
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