Looking for Explosions

Every time you see Dwayne Wade slice the lane and elevate for an all-too-easy two points, or witness LeBron’s skywalking feats of fancy --- or, heck, even watch Luke Ridnour whip the ball around the perimeter of the Key Arena, looking for an open three for one of his teammates --- you should be reminded of the 2003 NBA Draft.

The top picks of that board have arrived, in many cases far sooner than expected. LeBron is a perennial magazine cover boy, and the most oft-asked question in the week before the All-Star break was “Is he the next Jordan?” Carmelo’s game dropped a bit after Athens, but under George Karl, he has begun to diversify his overall package a bit, and the Nuggets are improving behind him. Wade is one-half of arguably the most dynamic 1-2 punch in the league right now, and later selections from ’03 --- Ridnour and Collison in the Pacific Northwest, Josh Howard down in Dallas, and David West in the imploding New Orleans organization --- are making significant gains in their games.

With the apparent acceleration of the NBA’s learning curve, a question naturally arises: which players from the 2004 NBA Draft --- current rooks --- could become league-wide sensations by the midpoint of next season? Never fret. Hoops Avenue has your hook-up:

Emeka Okfaor, F/C, Bobcats: Okafor could swipe ROY honors this year. Ironically, his biggest threat is probably former teammate Ben Gordon, now a true “Baby Bull.” More on Gordon in a second, but Okafor has put the surprising Bobcats on his back. In a game against the Bulls this past weekend, he scored 26 to complement 12 rebounds, and is, statistically speaking, the 10th-best center in the NBA already. Okafor has had nagging back injuries since his days in Storrs, though, and he’s been sidelined for portions of his rookie campaign. If he can play through, and the lottery-bound Bobcats can nab one of the point guards likely to come out this year, Okafor’s stock could rise substantially in his sophomore campaign. He’s a smart baller, and with a true point guard --- no offense, Jason Hart --- he could be the man in Charlotte for years to come.

Dwight Howard, F/C, Magic: Howard should be getting more props from the media in general for his excellence on the boards --- he’s a hair under 10 boards a game for the season, and his offense and defense improves consistently from week to week. Howard might get the media backhand because as high schoolers in the NBA go, he’s far short of Bron Bron, but far north of Kwame Brown at this point in their careers. Howard is still very young, and the cast in Orlando is eclectic. He probably won’t be a perennial All-Star, 20 and 10 guy until 2008, but watch his constant upward progress, whether for fantasy purposes or sheer enjoyment.

Ben Gordon, G, Bulls: I’ll save the comparisons to Vinnie Johnson --- everyone who follows the league has read that more times than Gordon has lifted the Bulls in the fourth quarter. The true question with Gordon long-term is the same as all others in his mold: what happens when he becomes one of the five? When Gordon eventually enters the starting line-up, be it in Chicago or his next stop (wherever that may be), will his game change at all? Will he be more dominant, or slink to the background? Regardless, these are not questions you need to deal with next year --- the Bulls are young, they’re learning how to win, and the East doesn’t figure to get significantly better this off season. Look for Gordon to be a catalyst for the next several years, and produce the gaudiest overall statistics of the 2004 class for the first four years of a career.

Andre Iguodala, F, Sixers: Iggy has some hops, and with C-Webb in town now to show him the ropes of being a NBA forward, he might develop ahead of the game. He’s our choice for a breakout star from this class in his sophomore campaign --- it’s certainly a gamble, but Wade’s game this season (while always there) flourished because of the dominance of those (i.e. Shaq) around him. If AI and C-Webb become a major 1-2 punch in the generally punchless East, AI2 could be good for 18 points and 8 boards a night.

Josh Smith, F, Hawks: Smith’s sophomore ascent is questionable --- the Hawks are horrific, and with few sure-fire prospects in the 2005 Draft, he probably won’t be surrounded with much talent. If he becomes the man in Hotlanta --- which seems likely --- he’ll eventually begin drawing double-teams, limiting his possibilities. However, as Smith matures, he could be the charismatic presence needed to lift Atlanta back into Eastern Conference respectability. He needs to diversify his game beyond his show-stopping dunks, and improve his 15-footer over the summer, but watch for this kid to break out a little bit more next year.

J.R. Smith, F, Hornets: Confused? Two Smiths, yet they’re not related. However, their situations are similar --- New Orleans is a floundering franchise, and J.R. has been getting some good minutes down there. With few veterans to learn from, Smith is going to have to grow up alongside some other projects such as Dan Dickau, David West, et al. If he can hit the weights this summer and slice the lane more, he could be one to watch --- not at the caliber of any 2003 guys in their second year, but building towards a decent, mid-level career.

Al Jefferson, F, Celtics: The Celtics are using considerable youth in their run to the Wacklantic Title. Al Jefferson, the HS product from Mississippi, might be the best of the bunch. He’s big, pretty strong, and has plenty of room for improvement --- and a coach, in Doc Rivers, willing to give him that time. Jefferson, though, bears some resemblance to Jermaine O’Neal, and it took him about four seasons to rise up towards superstar level. Bet on Jefferson to break out big the same time that Howard does, providing a potential new big man rivalry on the Eastern seaboard.