The Race for Number Eight

In any type of normal world, the race for the No. 8 seed in either Conference wouldn’t matter at all, save for adding some interest to the final third of the season. In the East, the No. 8 crew will probably draw the Miami Heat in round one, facing off against the inside-outside twosome of Shaq and D-Wade, who are poised to bring a big golden trophy to South Beach. It won’t be pretty.

The picture’s a bit different in the West, though --- the battle for the No. 8 slot is a tighter affair, and there’s interest from close NBA watchers. Granted, the last team in draws either the Spurs or the Suns, and both are going to be hard to knock off. But --- let’s say Steve Nash’s injuries continue to nag at him. Let’s also take into account that playoff basketball slows down and focuses on half-court sets. The Suns suddenly seem beatable, right? The Spurs are a bit tougher --- they thrive in half-court sets, and they’re the definition of consistent.

Still, let’s say the Lakers get the No. 8 seed --- a possibility we’ll investigate. The Lake Show has reached 4 of the last 5 Finals --- granted, with a vastly different chemistry. But Kobe is still a rare player. Let’s say Minnesota gets in just under the line --- they were the No. 1 seed last year, and possess arguably the league’s most game-altering player in Kevin Garnett. And if the Nuggets --- a young, eccentric mix of quality players --- get the nod, they might have enough firepower to run a full series with either San Antonio or Phoenix.

Since the No. 8 seed in the West could, theoretically, knock off a potential No. 1, we decided to investigate who’s most likely to come out as No. 8 in late April. We evaluated only the Lakers, T-Wolves, and Nuggets, because let’s be honest --- as good as the Clippers have played this year, do you honestly see them anywhere near the NBA Playoffs? We thought so.

Each team is assigned 3 (highest), 2, or 1 (lowest) points in four different categories: Personnel, Coaching, Remaining Schedule, and Intangibles. Scientific, no?

Personnel:
The Lakers have Kobe, who is arguably the best player in the game. He’s struggled without a presence in the middle (no offense to Chris Mihm…), and there’s serious strains on his image following the rape trial and tumultuous breakup of the championship run Lakers. Beyond Mr. Bryant, though, Los Angeles doesn’t have much. Caron Butler was promising as a rookie, but hasn’t done a ton since then. Lamar Odom is the second key to this team --- he needs to play at the level he’s capable of playing at, and he hasn’t been doing that. He goes in the tank more than Vince Carter claims he went in the tank in Canada, especially against higher-level foes.

The Timberwolves have an amazing team on paper. Garnett, the reigning MVP, can beat you every which way. Sam Cassell is an experienced, showstopper point guard, and Latrell Sprewell can still score in buckets. Wally World gets injured, sure, but he’s got game. The problem is, the entire team has underachieved this year, which creates a need for big games from Trenton Hassell and others. That shouldn’t be necessary given this squad, especially when Sprewell is playing for 14 million per (even though he’s apparently below the poverty line).

The Nuggets are good all-around. We’re still waiting for Camby to tear something, and Nene has been on the injured list since Valentine’s Day. Carmelo Anthony has slumped a bit in his sophomore campaign, and he doesn’t play defense much at all. Earl Boykins has become a star here, regularly pacing the team in scoring, and Andre Miller --- who must be with his 19th NBA team by now --- seems to have acquired the poise of a true floor general, leading this team pretty well on most nights. K-Mart has been energized by the recent hire of George Karl.

Points: Nuggets 3, T-Wolves 2, Lakers 1

Coaching:
Who’s Frank Hamblen? He’s not Rudy T. He’s not Coach K. He’s not Phil Jackson. In sum, he’s probably not good enough.

Kevin McHale probably shouldn’t have pulled the plug so soon on Flip Saunders. Saunders was a great coach, and a playoff upset this year would have re-invigorated his team. Now, McHale’s got himself on the bench. Let’s consider other 1980s Celtics as coaches --- ML Carr, Danny Ainge, Larry Bird. Moderate successes, yes, but are any still coaching? There’s a reason why… eventually, they all underachieved. Putting an underachiever with a group of underachievers probably isn’t the best mix…

George Karl is a savvy veteran coach. You can say all you want about his conspicuous lack of jewelry, but he’s won 60 games twice. The Nuggets have never won 60 games. The Nuggets have been on fire since he got the job from Michael Cooper by way of Jeff Bzedlik, recently winning six in a row. ‘Melo’s game is more diverse, more guys are getting quality minutes, and the team seems to play with a confidence and unity previously lacking. Karl was the right addition here, even counting rumors that he might be looking to ship Anthony away for his fear of playing tight defense.

Points: Nuggets 3, T-Wolves 2, Lakers 1

Remaining Schedule:

The Lakers, who are 20-11 at Staples Center, play only 10 of their remaining 23 games at home. In addition, they go on a road trip next week which features games at Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, Miami, and Indiana. They end the season with relative cream puffs Golden State and Portland, but play three consecutive games right before that against Phoenix, Sacramento, and Dallas. All of those games are at home, but are still tough draws.

The Timberwolves, only 17-14 at home this year, play only 9 of their remaining games at Target Center, and their last two home games are against Seattle (on pace for 59 wins) and San Antonio (on pace to win the West). In addition, they have road games at Phoenix, San Antonio, Los Angeles, Sacramento, and Dallas sprinkled throughout their final month and a half.

The Nuggets are 18-9 at Pepsi Center this year, and play 14 of their final 23 contests at home. In the final month, they do travel to Minneapolis, but they also get 2 games against the Hornets --- the worst team in the league --- and also play Portland and Golden State, both in the Mile High City. The Nuggets also draw the Grizzlies twice in the final three weeks. While the Grizz are playoff-bound themselves, it’s a favorable match-up for a streaking Denver squad.

Points: Nuggets 3, Lakers 2, Timberwolves 1

Intangibles
Kobe needs to reach the playoffs as a No. 8 seed, score 50 points every night, and off the No. 1 team in the West. In some ways, it would help restore his credibility and erase notions he can’t do it without Shaq. Also, it might help Frank Hamblen not become an assistant again next year.

The Timberwolves need to prove their 2003-2004 campaign was no joke, and some of their contract year players could benefit from the extra playing time and bigger stage of the playoffs.

The Nuggets are young, and aren’t expected to do much besides make the playoffs. They have a determined team and a determined coach, but aside from Anthony keeping pace with LeBron (who’s probably going to make the playoffs this year), the team doesn’t have a ton to prove right now.

Points: Lakers 3, Timberwolves 2, Nuggets 1

The Final Score:
Nuggets 10, Timberwolves 7, Lakers 7

Karl’s bunch is streaking, all right --- straight into a first-round date with the best of the West.