The Art Of Outright Tennis Betting: Lesson 5 - The Surface

One of the great advantages of tennis, in terms of betting as much as viewing, is the use of different surfaces at different ATP Tour events.

The 2010 schedule of 65 main events is split, broadly speaking, between hard courts (both indoor and outdoor), clay and grass.  The majority (37) are played on the faster, harder surfaces with clay (21) the next most widely used and the grass court season (6) now limited to a handful of events in June/July.

What this often highlights amongst the players is a difference in ability, a variety of performance and often a mismatch of styles.  For example, if a natural clay-courter plays an opponent considered as a ‘hard-court player’ on a slow dirt surface then we all know who is going to win.  However, put the same players on a quicker, bouncier surface and it’s the hard court performer who comes out on top.

Such situations we can easily exploit in match betting situations but we can also utiliset this phenomenon when we consider outright tournament betting.

Bookmakers often give undue credit to (a) well ranked players (b) recent tour winners or (c) players generally in good form.  The point is, that doesn’t always take into consideration the surface which is being used … so you’re in great form on clay but we’re playing on grass this week!

Astute tennis traders should be able to spot these situations - on the one hand, discounting players in the draw who aren’t suited to the surface but, on the other, locating those who can be expected to significantly up their performance (simply because of the particular type of court in use). 

Example: Lleyton Hewitt (Halle 2010) WON 14/1

Hewitt’s career record (537:188) shows a 74% winning ratio on all surfaces.  However, concentrate purely on grass and his 98:23 record actually shows the Aussie winning 81% of his matches.  This surface, being used for the Gerry Weber event in Germany, was statistically Hewitt’s best surface.  He’d also played in the final of six grass court tournaments prior to this event … and won all six.  In moderate form coming into the grass court season, a return to the ‘green stuff’ saw him land a 7th title on the surface at what was a hugely inflated price.

Remember, therefore, to give due credit to a player’s form on the surface being used and not to the success they may have enjoyed on another type of court.  Certainly players can ‘carry over’ their form from one to another but generally speaking, even amongst the very top performers, you’ll find significant differences in ability (and so opportunities to exploit).