Pro football picks – revenge in pro football
I'm pretty sure you heard about revenge quite a few time in sports betting, although does revenge, when it comes down to NFL picks, have something to do with making the right football picks?
I know you might have heard on revenge in many places when it comes down to sports betting,
although does revenge, talking about NFL picks, have whatever to do with profiting from NFL picks?
Well, it does sometimes, other times it doesn't, and that's the deal with all sports.
Whenever i research this trends, i get it done beginning with all games that suit that trend.
Making an examination at last 20 years at teams that lost in their last encounter with their opposition and were favorites in that last game, you will realize that there is no advantage for teams that are on revenge. This is the state in both cases whether lost matchup was played in current or one of previous seasons.
However lets have a look what happens if this match is supposed to be referred to as "underdog revenge" i.e. if team failed to win that lost matchup as a dog. It seems that underdogs get some edge. (51.7% ATS). This appears as a stunner, don't you think?
If we take it on in our hunt for favourable NFL picks, and look at teams that are on a double "underdog revenge" i.e. they failed to win last two matchups against their opposition as a underdog, we come to a profitable info: in 53.7% cases, its gonna be worthwhile to put money on that team. you have to say this is even more surprising!
Why doesn't it turn out like in some other sports, when losing favourites get motivation in next matchup? simply because teams have small amount of games. And they are not excited and all heated up for a rematch for it was long ago.
And why do former underdogs get excited about a revenge chance? Fact is they in fact aren't all that eager to get revenge. Since my conclusions are made looking at a closing lines, the only answer is: line has moved. Line will need to move is just 1 point to give us this kind of benefit. And it is very much possible cause amateur bettors put to much value on previous encounters.
This plain NFL system will get you 50-60 picks every season and one must have a very good reason to oppose it.
