UFC 264 - McGregor vs Poirier Odds, Bets & Predictions

From the sold-out MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas! The most famous stadium in Sin City will be sold out in anticipation of “The Notorious” Conor McGregor and Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier. UFC 264 Live is set to be the biggest event in the UFC this year, surpassed only by a possible Francis Ngannou vs. Jon Jones bout. UFC 264 odds are finally being published, and Conor McGregor has started as a -125 favorite.

Dana White and company are working hard to fill this program with big-name bouts. They have easily fulfilled their promise. Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson is the main event on this card. Furthermore, this event includes “Suga” Sean O'Malley, a rising star in the UFC. O'Malley has rainbow-colored hair and several highlight-reel knockouts. Prepare your popcorn because this is going to be a fantastic one.

As the card fills up, we will update and cover all of the odds changes — and there will be a lot of them. Finally, all data are supplied by UFCStats, who take MMA statistics to the next level.

UFC 264 Betting Predictions, Analysis, and Predictions

How to Bet on UFC 264's Main Event

Conor McGregor (-118) vs. Dustin Poirier (-102)

There is a lot to unpack here. Conor looked fantastic in the first round, seeming to injure Poirier on several times. Poirier, on the other hand, began landing numerous low-calf kicks at the 2-minute mark of the first round. Conor, for whatever reason, didn't know how to check a leg kick. Conor was extremely immobile after that, with a severely injured lead leg. Unfortunately for McGregor's supporters, he would be knocked out for the first fight in his UFC career.

Because there are so many outside-of-the-octagon variables, analyzing this battle is tough. The mental ability of each combatant before to the battle will reveal a lot about how the fight will unfold. Poirier confessed to getting freaked out by Conor in their first bout. Conor appeared in the second one, looking a little nervous and trying out a new "Nice Guy" image. Importantly, according to Conor's Instagram, he seems to have abandoned his flat-footed boxing posture and is returning to the karate-like technique that brought him to the dance.

McGregor will be the value play early on. There is virtually no possibility that Conor finishes as a -125 favorite. Because his fan base wagers so heavily on him, he will almost certainly finish closer to -175. Furthermore, FanDuel Sportsbook already has a complete slate of betting options for this battle. FanDuel Sportsbook opened with a crazy bet of Conor McGregor winning by third-round KO +3000. That has long since vanished and has been updated to +1400.

Conor has lost to the majority of his best opponents. He is up against the finest boxer in the lightweight category. I believe Poirier will win. I appreciate the use of a circular prop here. On FanDuel, the fight to begin round 3 is -102. Conor has to show to me that he can win a fight against a top-caliber opponent, and I believe that is a fair price.

UFC 264 Betting Prediction: Fight to Begin in Round 3 -102 (Fanduel)

Gilbert Burns (+115) vs. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (-139)

A battle between the top two contenders? It seems to be. Gilbert Burns just battled for the championship and almost knocked Kamaru Usman out in round one. He would go on to lose the fight and is now up against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Unlike Burns' last bout with Usman, Wonderboy is a former professional kickboxer with strong striking.

I'm not clear why Burns is the underdog here. Wonderboy is a fantastic kickboxer, but he's never been renowned for his ground game. Burns is so much better on the ground that I believe he is underrated. Burns averaged 2.08 takedowns every 15 minutes and should maintain that trend against Thompson. Along with his grappling advantage, I believe Burns also has a power advantage. Burns started as a +132 underdog but has now fallen to +115; I anticipate this to be close to even money by fight time.

UFC 264 Betting Prediction: Burns +115 (BetMGM)

Sean O'Malley (-345) vs. Louis Smolka (+270)

The Sugar Show is back in town. One of the most entertaining competitors the UFC has to offer is returning and has a very advantageous matchup against Louis Smolka. Unfortunately, this makes it especially tough to gamble on. I wouldn't suggest placing too many bets on this until the manner of victory props are revealed. My first instinct is to bet Smolka ML since the line is wide and O'Malley has lost as a large favorite in the past.

UFC 264 Betting Prediction: Wait For Method Of Victory Props/Live Bet Smolka After Round 1

Sean Brady (-160) vs. Kevin Lee (+132) in the preliminary round

Sean Brady is one of my favorite MMA fighters. He's from Philadelphia and he's a total beast. I have training partners that have trained with him, so there may be some prejudice there. Sean, on the other hand, is a beast, and Kevin Lee believes he is a greater wrestler than he is. He will not be scared to go to the ground with Sean, but he should be. Lee's past three defeats have all been via submission, and Brady possesses a terrible submission grappling game. When the manner of win props are revealed, choose Lee by KO or Brady by submission.